Call or fold

Once you can work out what you need, compare it with how often your hand actually wins.

More than you need: call. Less: fold. That is the whole decision.

This is where “it feels strong” turns into a number.

• break-even equity

  How often you must win for a call to be neither profitable nor losing. It is the call divided by the final pot. Win more often than this and calling makes money.

• equity

  The share of the pot your hand is worth right now if the hand ran to the end. Ties count as splitting.

• EV

  Expected value: what a decision wins or loses on average if you faced the same spot many times. Positive means it makes money in the long run.

20 hands or more, with an optimal rate of 70% and average EV loss no worse than 0.10BB